Ich halte es mit Carl Sagan:
1. Confirm all “facts”
“Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the ‘facts,'” wrote Sagan. So don’t take that angry friend, confident-sounding YouTuber, or politically slanted news network at their word. Today a plethora of high-quality sources of information are just a Google search away.
2. Welcome debate
“Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view,” says Sagan. The path to truth runs through constructive argument, not humming along with the choir. If an idea can’t stand up to scrutiny, it’s probably baloney, and if the person advocating for it isn’t interested in conversations with those with different viewpoints, they probably know it.
3. Don’t blindly trust “authorities”
“Arguments from authority carry little weight–‘authorities’ have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts,” explains Sagan. Should you trust medical advice from a doctor more than that from your aunt on Facebook? Yes, obviously. But you shouldn’t just believe everyone who calls themselves an expert either.
4. Consider multiple hypotheses
“Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among ‘multiple working hypotheses,’ has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy,” instructs Sagan.
Humans love to latch onto the explanation for events that best fits our existing model of the world. That’s called confirmation bias, and it’s comfortable. But it’s a lousy way to get at the truth. Take the time to consider the alternatives to each of your beliefs and be open to persuasive arguments about these other hypotheses.
5. Don’t get too personally invested in your beliefs
“Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will,” continues Sagan.
This is a corollary of number four above. This kind of intellectual humility has been pushed by everyone from Jeff Bezos and Adam Grant to Harvard’s Steven Pinker and Stanford’s Bob Sutton.
6. Quantify
“If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging,” claims Sagan.
People lie all the time. Numbers don’t (though people do use numbers to lie, so beware).
7. Be thorough in your thinking
“If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise) –not just most of them,” says Sagan. People can spin huge cotton candy clouds of BS around kernels of truth. Just because part of what they’re saying makes sense, it doesn’t mean it all does.
8. Remember Occam’s razor
“This convenient rule of thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler,” explains Sagan. “If you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras” is a popular maxim for a reason.
9. Beware the unfalsifiable
“Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle — an electron, say — in a much bigger cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result,” concludes Sagan.
Conversations about a whole universe in a mote of dust are great for late-night dorm room musings. Have them if you enjoy them, by all means. Questions beyond science can delight, inspire, and guide. But don’t lose sight of the fact that they are about matters of faith, not truth. If other people disagree with you, you have no call to get angry or feel superior.
Wendet man das an, kommt man ziemlich weit. Zusätzlich noch Occams Razor.
Die Lösung mit der geringsten Anzahl an Variablen ist höchstwahrscheinlich die Richtige.